Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc is short of a governing majority, holding about 53 of the Knesset's 120 seats on Wednesday's partial count, and Likud responded by claiming the election was "stolen" by Arab parties and demanding a police and Shin Bet investigation.
Likud still emerged as the largest single party, according to The Times of Israel. But the count has moved steadily against Netanyahu's camp since election night, and Arab-led parties are on track for a record 19 seats. Those numbers turn the question of who governs Israel into a question about the Arab parties, and Likud has now put the legitimacy of their votes in play.
How the count moved
The newsroom tracked the Central Elections Committee's partial results as reported through the day on The Times of Israel's live coverage. Each line shows the share of ballots counted, then Netanyahu's bloc, the opposition led by Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party, and the Arab-led parties.
4:17 a.m., 25.2% counted: 63, 49 and 8.
6:10 a.m., 41.9% counted: 57, 47 and 16.
9:28 a.m., 66.2% counted: 56, 48 and 16.
12:39 p.m., 84.5% counted: 54, 49 and 17.
3:07 p.m., more than 85% counted: 53, 48 and 19.
In the space of about 11 hours, Netanyahu's bloc lost 10 seats on paper while the Arab-led parties more than doubled. The committee stressed at each update that the results "are partial and will change as counting continues."
The math on 61
The newsroom's arithmetic on the 3:07 p.m. figures: 53 plus 48 plus 19 equals 120, so every seat is accounted for. Netanyahu needs 8 more seats to reach 61. Eisenkot's camp would need 13 more, which it cannot find without at least some of the Arab-led parties. Combined, the opposition and the Arab-led parties hold 67.
Ra'am, projected at 7 seats, is led by Mansour Abbas, who has said he would not join a Netanyahu-led government. Joint List chairman Yousef Jabareen said his party is ready to "pave the way for ousting the government of Netanyahu, Ben Gvir and Smotrich, and send them home." Not everyone in the opposition agrees. Yisrael Beytenu leader Avigdor Liberman has reportedly cut contact with the rest of the opposition and wants an Eisenkot and Netanyahu unity government, the paper reported.
The uncounted ballots
What could still move the numbers is the "double envelope" vote, cast mainly by soldiers, prisoners, diplomats and others who could not vote at their home polling stations. The committee now estimates 430,000 to 480,000 such ballots, significantly fewer than the roughly 600,000 previously reported. At roughly 40,000 votes per seat, that is about 12 seats' worth of ballots.
That does not mean 12 new seats. The Knesset stays at 120, and these ballots only shift how the seats are shared out. For Netanyahu to gain 8 seats from them, those voters would have to break for his bloc by a wide margin. The double envelopes have historically leaned away from Arab and Haredi parties, the paper reported, though the large number of reservists from across the spectrum makes this year harder to predict. Final official results are expected on November 4.
The fraud claim
Likud said in a statement that "the elections in Israel were stolen by Arab parties." It said it had submitted to police, the Shin Bet and the election committee what it described as hundreds of testimonies, thousands of envelopes with cash and Ra'am ballot slips, threats toward ballot committee members, double voting, gaps between envelope counts and voter counts, and the use of illegal voter mobilization software, according to The Times of Israel. These are allegations, and no finding of fraud has been made.
An election committee official had dismissed the fraud claims earlier in the day in an interview with Channel 12, the paper reported. It also reported that Likud operatives had been preparing before the vote to challenge results from Arab towns and to call the vote "stolen." On election day, police arrested three men from Bedouin communities on suspicion of vote buying, as we reported in our election day story. Those men are presumed innocent, and a handful of arrests is a different thing from proof of results-changing fraud.
The committee said its acting director general, Dean Livne, had notified all parties on October 25 that they could submit polling stations whose results they believed warranted examination. "The committee received Likud's request and is reviewing it as part of this operation," it said in a statement.
Why the process matters
For a legal audience, the useful distinction is between a claim and a challenge. A press statement saying an election was stolen carries no legal weight. What counts is whether specific polling stations are examined, whether specific ballots are disqualified, and whether any criminal case is brought and proven. The committee's monitoring process is the forum for the first two. Police and prosecutors handle the third.
Once results are final, President Isaac Herzog consults the parties and chooses a nominee to try to form a government, a process with fixed deadlines that we laid out in our guide to how Israel forms a government. The fight over the Arab vote is likely to shape those consultations.
Two Taps News stories summarize reporting and the analysis discussed on Two Taps and Friends. They are not legal advice. Read our standards.
